Oh, by the way
Started by Memnoch, 13th December 2019 09:05 in News & Current Affairs

  1. #1 | 2139760
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    Default Oh, by the way

    We Are Leaving.

  2. #2 | 2139763
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    Default Re: Oh, by the way

    Hope you've got my 50 ready, Mem!

  3. #3 | 2139768
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    Default Re: Oh, by the way

    Memnoch
    We Are Leaving.
    I'll believe it when it actually happens.

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    Default Re: Oh, by the way

    Chris Mitchell
    Hope you've got my 50 ready, Mem!
    Do you want me to remind you of the terms you specified yet again?

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    Default Re: Oh, by the way

    Memnoch
    My prediction is that either Article 50 will not be invoked before the next General Election or A50 will be invoked followed by the PM either rejecting terms offered or putting unacceptable terms offered by the EU to a referendum.

    If A50 is not invoked I win.
    If A50 is invoked and terms are rejected and we apply for readmission, I win.
    If neither of these things happen, i.e. if A50 is invoked and terms of withdrawal are accepted, I lose and pay you five times your stake.To summarise, if the government works in our favour and we leave with a favourable deal, I lose because that is what I'm contending the government will not allow to happen.
    Chris Mitchell
    I'm happy to put a tenner at 5/1 on the bet that your sentence three will happen by 2020 (next General Election). Deal?
    I have highlighted the "sentence three" you specified. We've had two general elections and we still haven't left. I'll be generous with benefit-of-doubt and suppose that "by 2020" could be construed as "before the end of 2020"

    The terms of withdrawal are nowhere near being decided, and if we Leave with no deal you lose your "bet that your sentence three will happen..."

  6. #6 | 2139814
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    Default Re: Oh, by the way

    Memnoch
    I have highlighted the "sentence three" you specified. We've had two general elections and we still haven't left. I'll be generous with benefit-of-doubt and suppose that "by 2020" could be construed as "before the end of 2020"

    The terms of withdrawal are nowhere near being decided, and if we Leave with no deal you lose your "bet that your sentence three will happen..."
    Fair enough. Regarding sentence three, A50 has already been invoked, and the EU accepted the terms of withdrawal under Johnson's deal on 21 October. However, the terms of withdrawal weren't accepted by the UK parliament at that time - so the bet wasn't won at that point - but with such a big majority parliament will almost certainly vote in favour of the deal too, at which point sentence three is fulfilled. I think that will happen either this month or in January.

    If we leave without a deal, then the terms of withdrawal (i.e. we're leaving, no deal) are accepted, since neither sentence 1 nor 2 will be true.

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    Chris Mitchell
    with such a big majority parliament will almost certainly vote in favour of the deal
    If all the new Tory MPs are going to vote for it, yeah, sure, but I see no basis for any such assumption. No Deal remains a distinct possibility IMO.

  8. #8 | 2139842
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    Default Re: Oh, by the way

    No deal would be a good outcome.
    Liked by: sphinx


  9. #9 | 2139851
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    Default Re: Oh, by the way

    Lord Ponsonby
    No deal would be a good outcome.
    Better than a bad deal, but you never know, the EU might stop trying to punish us for our disobedience.


    Nah, just kidding.

  10. #10 | 2139856
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    Default Re: Oh, by the way

    Memnoch
    Better than a bad deal, but you never know, the EU might stop trying to punish us for our disobedience.

    Nah, just kidding.


    I was hoping they'd kick us out.
    Liked by: sphinx


 


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